Year 2017
Project Category Research Projects
Project Title Greenhouse gas (GHG) baseline forecasting for Taiwan’s agricultural sector using the dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) approach (1/2) (2/2).
Participator Hsu, S. H. (PI), Chang, C. C. (co-PI), Lin, S. C. (co-PI), Lee, D. H. (co-PI), Su, C. C. (co-PI), Chiou, C. R. (co-PI), Hsu, S. M. (Executor)
Job Title Predoctoral researcher; PhD student (Executor)
Period 2017.03 ~ 2018.12
Unit Council of Agriculture (COA), Executive Yuan, Taiwan
Abstract 計畫編號：106農科-1.2.1-企-Q1；107農管-1.11-企-02

為因應我國通過「溫室氣體減量及管理法」，就階段管制目標及管制方式之程序性規範，擬具「溫室氣體階段管制目標及管制方式作業準則」，爰此，行政院要求各部門擬定溫室氣體階段管制目標及其管制方式作業準則。本研究將依「我國國家溫室氣體排放清冊」之係數，採用一般均衡模型進行基線推估，並以農林部門模型和漁業部門模型校準。
　　本研究目標與重點工作項目如下：
  1. 蒐集、研析並提供最新國際溫室氣體相關議題之資訊，並完成巴黎協定相關決議文及規範分析，提出農林部門因應建議。
  2. 研提農林部門溫室氣體排放趨勢推估原則及參數，並設定情境，就不同情境進行溫室氣體排放趨勢推估與分析，以作為階段管制目標訂修之參考。
  3. 配合階段管制目標之訂修，研析並提出農林部門溫室氣體減量情境、減量貢獻及減量成本之估算。
  4. 進行農林部門階段管制目標對於經濟、能源、環境、社會等面向之衝擊影響評估。
  5. 針對我國農林部門溫室氣體為達成階段管制目標產生之衝擊影響提出因應措施，以供施政參考，並參加COP23與24。
　　預期效益包括：
  1. 本計畫將配合施政的需求，因應我國投入減碳，更新先前的碳排放統計，再配合階段管制目標之訂修，設定不同境況，模擬我國上述部門溫室氣體的排放量與趨勢。並以模式進行農林部門階段管制目標對於經濟、能源、環境、社會等面向之衝擊影響評估，提出因應措施。
  2. 參考各國經驗，研析可供我國借鏡之作法。
  3. 加強國內外相關模型及資訊的交流與整合，完成期末報告撰寫。
  4. 提出農林部門溫室氣體減量情境、減量貢獻及減量成本之估算。
  5. 提出具體政策建議以供決策參考，提供必要且即時的模擬評估及決策支援，將研究成果進行公開說明，或於相關專業期刊發表。 
Project Number: 106AS-1.2.1-P-Q1; 107AM-1.11-P-02
In response "Greenhouse Gas Reduction and Management Act", Council of Agriculture is required to formulate the "Agricultural Sector Greenhouse Gas Emission Control Target and its Code of Practice" by Excutive Yuan, Taiwan (ROC). A computable general equilibrium (CGE) model will be used to estimate CO2 emission baseline based on the "Taiwan's National Greenhouse Gas Inventories" and calibrated by The Taiwan Agricultural Sector Model and the Taiwan Fisheries Sector Model.
　　The overall goals and priorities can be achieved through the following:
  1. Collecting and providing information on the latest international greenhouse gas-related issues, completing the relevant parliamentary and normative analysis of the Paris Agreement, and proposing recommendations for the agricultural and forestry sectors.
  2. Studying the principles and parameters of GHG emission baseline in the agricultural and forestry sectors and setting up scenarios to estimate and analyze the baseline of greenhouse gas emissions in different policies as a reference for the Code of Practice.
  3. Researching and developing the agricultural and forestry sectors' greenhouse gas reduction scenarios with the Code of Practice, the contribution of reduction and reduction of the estimated cost. Carrying out the impact assessments of agricultural and forestry sectors' Code of Practice on economic, energy, environmental, social and other aspects.
  4. In view of the impact of greenhouse gas in Taiwan's agricultural and forestry sectors on the impact of the Code of Practice for the policy reference, and participate in COP23&24.
　　The anticipated benefits of the project include:
  1. The project will meet the needs of governance, in line with Taiwan's investment in carbon reduction, update the previous carbon emissions statistics, and then set different circumstances and policies with Code of Practice, simulation of Taiwan's greenhouse gas emissions and baseline.
  2. Carry out the Code of Practice for the economy, energy, environment, and society. Reference to national experience and analysis for our Code of Practice. 
  3. Strengthen the integration of domestic and international information and finish the final report.
  4. Carry out the assignment of greenhouse gas reduction in agroforestry sector, the contribution of reduction and the estimated cost of reduction.
  5. Provide specific policy recommendations for decision-making reference, necessary and immediate simulation assessment and decision support, the research results for public statements, or published in the relevant professional journals.
Reference URL https://project.moa.gov.tw/plan/p#/P01
Language Chinese